Merkel: The End of an Era
Until not too long ago, it became simply unfathomable that German Chancellor Angela Merkel could possibly lose a vote. The country was simply doing too well, even with minor hiccups like Brexit or the acceptance of one million refugees from the Middle East. Merkel was still 'Mutti', or Mom, as Germans liked to call her, often sarcastically behind the back of a hand.
It took two state elections to put Merkel's possible reign for life into proper perspective.
First state up was Bavaria, size wise the biggest state in the Federal Republic of Germany and a stronghold since the 1950's for Conservatives, largely thanks to the CDU's sister party, the CSU, or Christian Social Union. The question since then has never been whether the CSU would ever win the state election in Bavaria (and it still isn't), but whether the Conservatives would have to enter into a coalition to rule in Munich. Translated, that meant that this issue was whether the CSU could gain an absolute majority - a runaway victory, or a blowout.
In 2003, for example, the CSU gained 60.6 percent of the vote, or 124 of 180 seats of the State Parliament in Munich. All this happened despite (or because of) a Social Democratic chancellor in Berlin, Gerhard Schröder. At over 60 percent of the vote, the delegates could simply mail in their vote, one would think.
It turned out this would be the Conservatives' peak. Only five years later, even with Merkel now serving her first term as Chancellor, the CSU dipped to 43.4 percent, or a loss of over 17 percent. This was still a comfortable victory by anybody's standard, although critics also observed (correctly) that this was the first time the CSU hadn't obtained an absolute majority in the state elections since 1962. 2013 would show the CSU redeeming themselves with a majority vote of 47.7 percent.
The bottom would fall out from there.
In October, voters scaled back their support for the CSU, who gained 37 percent of the vote, a drop of more than 10 percent. CSU would have to form a coalition to remain in power. In Berlin, the Conservatives were now shaking.
The die was cast with the state elections in Hessen, where Merkel's party, the CDU, obtained 27 percent of the vote, a drop of more than 11 percent. This meant that the Conservatives would have to form a coalition with the Green Party to remain in power, and quite possibly invite the Libertarians as well. The next week, Merkel declared that she would no longer seek a candidacy for the chairmanship of the party and henceforward the office of the Chancellor.
What exactly happened?
First off, it's important to note that the two biggest parties in Germany, the CDU and the SPD (the Socialdemocrats), have both taken severe beatings in the past elections. The winners here have been the Green Party and the far right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland).
Here, it wasn't a matter of the economy, but Merkel's extremely polarizing asylum policy. Suddenly, the voters migrate themselves, from center-right to far right. And from center-left to more left, as in the Greens.
We won't know how history will view Merkel, since there's a general feeling that her legacy isn't completely written yet. One thing is certain: change, even in stable Germany, is inevitable.
It took two state elections to put Merkel's possible reign for life into proper perspective.
First state up was Bavaria, size wise the biggest state in the Federal Republic of Germany and a stronghold since the 1950's for Conservatives, largely thanks to the CDU's sister party, the CSU, or Christian Social Union. The question since then has never been whether the CSU would ever win the state election in Bavaria (and it still isn't), but whether the Conservatives would have to enter into a coalition to rule in Munich. Translated, that meant that this issue was whether the CSU could gain an absolute majority - a runaway victory, or a blowout.
In 2003, for example, the CSU gained 60.6 percent of the vote, or 124 of 180 seats of the State Parliament in Munich. All this happened despite (or because of) a Social Democratic chancellor in Berlin, Gerhard Schröder. At over 60 percent of the vote, the delegates could simply mail in their vote, one would think.
It turned out this would be the Conservatives' peak. Only five years later, even with Merkel now serving her first term as Chancellor, the CSU dipped to 43.4 percent, or a loss of over 17 percent. This was still a comfortable victory by anybody's standard, although critics also observed (correctly) that this was the first time the CSU hadn't obtained an absolute majority in the state elections since 1962. 2013 would show the CSU redeeming themselves with a majority vote of 47.7 percent.
The bottom would fall out from there.
In October, voters scaled back their support for the CSU, who gained 37 percent of the vote, a drop of more than 10 percent. CSU would have to form a coalition to remain in power. In Berlin, the Conservatives were now shaking.
The die was cast with the state elections in Hessen, where Merkel's party, the CDU, obtained 27 percent of the vote, a drop of more than 11 percent. This meant that the Conservatives would have to form a coalition with the Green Party to remain in power, and quite possibly invite the Libertarians as well. The next week, Merkel declared that she would no longer seek a candidacy for the chairmanship of the party and henceforward the office of the Chancellor.
What exactly happened?
First off, it's important to note that the two biggest parties in Germany, the CDU and the SPD (the Socialdemocrats), have both taken severe beatings in the past elections. The winners here have been the Green Party and the far right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland).
Here, it wasn't a matter of the economy, but Merkel's extremely polarizing asylum policy. Suddenly, the voters migrate themselves, from center-right to far right. And from center-left to more left, as in the Greens.
We won't know how history will view Merkel, since there's a general feeling that her legacy isn't completely written yet. One thing is certain: change, even in stable Germany, is inevitable.
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