Although I don’t believe you can top a U.S. election campaign for sheer spectacle, Tanzania is certainly giving the U.S. a run for the money.
Only a couple of weeks ago, it seemed like every man, woman, and four legged creature of the Serengeti lined up for the presidential nomination. The daily newspapers here offered plenty of cartoons depicting the long line of candidates queuing up in front of the presidential office. That queue has now been whittled down to less than a handful, and that’s only counting CCM, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi, also known as the ruling power in Tanzania.
The good news and the bad news for CCM. The good news is that CCM has never lost a presidential election over the past five decades. The bad news: there’s an uncharacteristic split within the party which will see CCM’s perfect record snapped (or split, if you will) in half, if allowed to fester.
The most popular pick for a while to succeed President Kikwete was Edward Lowassa, former premier until he resigned in 2008 amid corruption allegations. Surprisingly, or maybe not, Lowassa was not on CCM’s final ballot of five. Why he was stiffed isn’t immediately clear. CCM itself vowed to reduce corruption within the government, if only to look good for the papers, and by default the west. Several party members have protested Lowassa’s omission from the ballot.
So who remained? Bernard Member, Foreign Minister; former UN official Asha-Rose Migiro; John Magufuli, Minister of Public Works; African Union Ambassador to the UN, Amina Salum Ali, and former Kikwete aid, January Makamba. For those of you counting, that would be two female candidates. Impressive, either way you look at it.
Remarkable in itself is Kikwete refusing to run for a third presidential term. Smart man, some would say, given that the constitution limits each president to two terms. Loco, others would say. That has never stopped other candidates from prolonging their power in other countries, most notably on the African continent.
On July 12, CCM announced the winner: Magufuli, Public Works Minister, ahead of the two ladies in an internal party poll. This makes him the hands on favorite to win the election. What remains is the four opposition parties’ selection, and the opinion here is prevalent that CCM’s opponents are even more split than the ruling party itself.
So Dodoma might just have a new winner.
We will know in October, although I doubt things will be that cut and dried. Elections rarely are here.
